Poland's free-market enthusiast Donald Tusk won most votes in presidential elections on Sunday, putting him in the leading position for an October 23 run-off against conservative Lech Kaczynski, partial results showed.
The results from 32 percent of districts counted gave Tusk 35.4 percent of the vote, 2.5 percentage points ahead of runner-up Kaczynski, the Warsaw mayor who campaigned hard on a promise of a "moral revolution" and a return to Christian values in the European Union newcomer.
Both finished well ahead of other 10 candidates, cementing a swing to the right in Poland after their parties, heirs to the pro-democracy Solidarity movement, trounced the ruling left in parliamentary polls last month.
But Tusk's failure to win outright majority means the race to succeed outgoing leftist President Aleksander Kwasniewski must go to the second round.
"This victory gave hope to millions of Poles before the second round," Tusk told a cheering crowd at his campaign headquarters.
The rivalry between former allies Tusk and Kaczynski has complicated efforts by their parties to form a coalition government and agree a programme Poland needs to revive growth and cut unemployment.
Polish presidents have little direct influence over economic or social policy, but the vote will determine the balance of power in the next coalition and therefore the scope and speed of reforms in the nation of 38 million people.
Political analysts say those who backed populist and leftist candidates in the first round hold the key to victory and both rivals immediately sought o broaden their appeal.
Far-left populist Andrzej Lepper came third with 16.3 percent of the vote.
Marek Borowski, a Social Democrat, got 10.2 percent, despite an endorsement from Kwasniewski. The outgoing president, who cannot run again after two five-year appealed to leftist voters not to shun the second round.
DEEP DIVIDE
Analysts said vote results confirmed a deep divide between poorer, rural areas where many voters are religious traditionalists suspicious of "Western" influence and more open-minded city-dwellers.
Tusk won in major cities and more prosperous western and central regions, although, surprisingly, his free-market message also won him most votes among Poland's 2.8 million unemployed, exit polls showed.
Kaczynski, a moderate nationalist who promised small-crop farmers to protect their way of life, captured the predominately rural and poorer east and south-east.
"Eastern Poland is a rural Poland, traditionalist, Poland which fears change and this defines Kaczynski's voters," said Lena Kolarska-Bobinska, head of the Public Affairs Institute in Warsaw.
Kaczynski, 56, immediately hit hard his top campaign themes -- a clear break with post-communist Poland, so called "Third Republic" he says is marred by cronyism and corruption, and his defence of welfare state against "liberal economic experiments."
Tusk, 48, who appeals mainly to better-educated, more affluent Poles who see EU membership and free market as an opportunity and not a threat, tried to reach out to those who fear change.
Financial markets fear Kaczynski's presidential win would further weaken free-market forces in the future conservative-led coalition and were relieved to see Tusk ahead.
"Tusk's lead, which suggests he will win in the second round, will mean a stronger position in the government for his party, the Civic Platform -- which would be well-received by the markets," said Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska, chief economist at Citibank Polish unit Bank Handlowy.
|