Twins Slip In Struggle For Votes

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They were the stars of a popular movie as children but as adult conservative politicians, Poland's identical twins Jaroslaw and Lech Kaczynski seem eternally condemned to supporting roles.

Just a month ago, the brothers and their party, Law and Justice (PiS), looked set for a sweeping victory in this year's presidential and parliamentary elections.

Lech, 45 minutes younger than Jaroslaw, was the front-runner for the presidency and Law and Justice topped polls for the parliamentary vote, raising the prospect of new European Union member Poland having twins as prime minister and president.

The former anti-communist activists, promising Poles a "moral revolution", looked confident that their time had come after years of never quite making it to the top.

Now, their dreams are in danger of remaining just that.

Moderate centre-right rival Donald Tusk has come from nowhere to take the lead ahead of the October presidential poll, pushing Lech, the popular mayor of Warsaw, into second place.

Tusk's party, Civic Platform (PO), has replaced Law and Justice as the clear favourite to win the parliamentary vote.

The two parties are allies born from the Solidarity movement that brought about the end of communism in 1989. They say they want to rule together in a coalition, regardless of which party comes first in the September 25 parliamentary vote.

But some commentators say the Kaczynskis, 56, will find their second fiddle role hard to swallow.

"The Kaczynskis are people of firm views ... (and) strong characters. They are also prone to 'all or nothing' attitudes," said commentator and former Solidarity activist Aleksander Hall.

"In the past that had prevented (them) ... from collaborating with parties of similar political views."

FROM SILVER SCREEN TO SOLIDARITY

The Kaczynskis won early fame in 1962 after starring as young lovable scamps in a Polish movie hit called "The Two Who Stole The Moon." The movie poster showed them as angelic, blond boys dressed in rags.

They next emerged as Solidarity activists in 1980s and after the fall of communism, the ambitious, strong-willed and uncompromising brothers frequently acted as power brokers on the right of the fragmented political scene.

In Poland's first free presidential elections in 1990, they were the driving force behind Solidarity hero Lech Walesa's victory over another leading dissident Tadeusz Mazowiecki.

They took prominent jobs in Walesa's administration but fell out with him almost immediately, after he resisted their calls for Poland to drop "shock therapy" economic reforms.

Later, they blocked Walesa's attempts to build a broad-based coalition around Solidarity liberals and conservatives.

By now, they were viewed by many as troublemakers. In a 1993 survey conducted for a Polish daily, Jaroslaw was rated as the country's "biggest political loony". Lech came in second.

Analysts say the brothers still suffer from that image.

"They have not been able to convince Poles that they are a safe pair of hands," said Jacek Raciborski, sociology professor at Warsaw University.

"Their conservative fundamentalism got their party off the ground but it cannot push it into the political centre."

LAST CHANCE

Most analysts expect Poland to tilt to the right in the elections because of voter anger with the ruling leftists over sleaze scandals and failure to significantly cut unemployment.

Investors are worried that the Kaczynski brothers' mildly eurosceptic party may block Civic Platform's plans to quickly adopt the single European currency, although they are encouraged that both vow sweeping fiscal reforms.

The Kaczynski twins are also struggling with an image problem in a television-dominated campaign -- an ironic twist given their early success on the small screen.

Nicknamed "Kaczory" or the ducks, the short, stout, greying twins made headlines when they bought new suits to replace their mostly grey outfits before the election campaign started.

But despite their new wardrobe and oratorical powers, they often appear wooden on television and in photographs on posters.

Supporters say the brothers have mellowed over the years and describe Law and Justice as Poland's first truly conservative party, built around ideas like social justice and lower taxes.

Many Poles are attracted by their Catholic values, incorruptible image, enduring views and demonstrated ability to roll up their sleeves and fight for their beliefs.

The brothers say the radical image portrayed in the media is unfair and that they are determined to make the coalition with Civic Platform work.

"This (election) is my last chance," Jaroslaw told weekly Newsweek Polska in its latest edition.

There might just be time for another twist in the tale, before the first round of the presidential election on October 9.

A poll released on Thursday suggested Tusk's lead might be shrinking. It showed that in a potential run-off, he would get 54 percent with Lech taking 46 percent.

Source: Reuters

Sept.9.2005



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